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| #909391 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:18 AM 06.Nov.2017) TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 1100 AM AST Mon Nov 06 2017 The depression has a sheared appearance with the low-level center exposed to the west of the mid-level center and the convective bands. A very recent ASCAT-B overpass indicated that maximum winds are near 30 kt, which is also in agreement with a Dvorak classification from TAFB. Based on these data, the initial wind speed is held at 30 kt. The depression has slowed down and turned to the left, with the initial motion estimated to be 015/3 kt. A faster north to north-northeast motion is expected during the next couple of days while the system moves in the flow on the west side of a mid-level ridge. Thereafter, an even faster motion toward the northeast is forecast when the cyclone becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The model guidance is in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is nudged to the west of the previous one to come into agreement with the latest consensus models. Although the environment ahead of the depression is not expected to be particularly conducive for strengthening as a tropical system, baroclinic enhancements and the expected faster forward speed should cause the cyclone to gain some strength during the next couple of days. The global models agree that the cyclone should merge with a cold front by Wednesday evening, causing extratropical transition. The extratropical cyclone is expected to gradually weaken and dissipate in 4 to 5 days. The guidance has trended a little higher this cycle, and the NHC intensity forecast follows that trend and lies near the IVCN and HCCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 29.5N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 30.8N 50.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 33.6N 49.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 37.3N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 41.4N 46.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 51.0N 33.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/1200Z 57.0N 14.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
