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| #909625 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:38 PM 08.Nov.2017) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 1100 PM AST Wed Nov 08 2017 A small area of deep convection persists near the center of Rina, likely supported by very cold temperatures aloft and increasing upper-level divergence overcoming SSTs less than 20C. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based largely on continuity from the ASCAT pass earlier today, as the latest ASCAT passes missed much of Rina's circulation. Given the maintenance of deep convection, Rina remains a tropical cyclone, but should not be one for long as vertical shear is expected to increase above 30 kt and SSTs cool below 15C along the forecast track in the next 12 hours. The cyclone should become post-tropical by 12 hours and merge with a frontal zone by 24 hours. Post-tropical Rina should open up into a trough in 36 to 48 hours in the fast westerly flow over the north Atlantic. No change in strength is forecast prior to dissipation, based on global model guidance. Satellite fixes indicate that Rina moved a little to the west of the previous forecast track in the past few hours, but the cyclone now appears to be moving north-northeastward or 020/20. The cyclone is forecast to accelerate northeastward over the next 24 hours as it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude flow, and an even faster east- northeastward motion is expected on Friday prior to dissipation. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the left and is closer to the ECMWF model in the short range, since that model has best handled the recent motion of Rina. At 24 to 36 hours, the NHC forecast lies to the left of the latest multi-model consensus aids. The track, intensity and structure forecasts of Rina during its post-tropical phase have been coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 42.5N 48.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 45.7N 46.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 10/0000Z 51.0N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 10/1200Z 55.0N 26.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan |
