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| #91180 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:28 PM 12.Jun.2006) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 500 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006 AFTER THE SUDDEN STRENGTHENING EPISODE OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY...THE STORM HAS LEVELED OFF IN INTENSITY. THE LAST FIX FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOWED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS HOLDING NEAR 997 MB AND THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 67 KT...SO THE INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED AT 60 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AMOUNT AND INTENSITY OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER ELONGATED. THE STORM HAS LEFT THE AREA OF HIGHEST OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...I.E. THE GULF OF MEXICO LOOP CURRENT...BEHIND. NONETHELESS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM EARLY ON TUESDAY. ALBERTO'S FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT...TO ABOUT 9 KT. A 500 MB TROUGH NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHOULD STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD TRACK UNTIL IT MOVES INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WITHIN THIS GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINS...THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH ALBERTO WILL LIKELY BE STORM SURGE FLOODING...WHICH COULD BE 8-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS EVEN FOR A STRONG TROPICAL STORM IN THIS AREA. IT IS...HOWEVER...IMPOSSIBLE TO SPECIFY EXACTLY WHICH LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST STORM SURGE FLOODING BECAUSE THIS WILL DEPEND UPON THE PRECISE TRACK AND WIND FIELD NEAR LANDFALL. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 27.9N 85.1W 60 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 28.9N 84.1W 65 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 30.4N 83.0W 50 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 14/0600Z 32.1N 81.9W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 14/1800Z 34.0N 80.0W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 15/1800Z 37.0N 72.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 16/1800Z 42.0N 65.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 17/1800Z 47.0N 57.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
