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| #9130 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:26 AM 18.Sep.2004) TCMAT2 HURRICANE KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122004 1500Z SAT SEP 18 2004 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 39.3W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 25SE 90SW 25NW. 34 KT.......100NE 75SE 100SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 39.3W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 38.8W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.1N 40.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 25SE 90SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.1N 42.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.9N 44.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.0N 46.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.8N 48.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 27.0N 48.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 34.0N 45.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 39.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z FORECASTER LAWRENCE |
