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| #91523 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 13.Jun.2006) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 500 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006 ALTHOUGH OVER LAND...ALBERTO POSSESSES A WELL-ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN. DEEP CONVECTION IS RATHER LIMITED HOWEVER. TROPICAL STORM STATUS IS BEING RETAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY BECAUSE 34-KT SUSTAINED WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION IS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE MERGING WITH A LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE IN A DAY OR SO AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY HOUR 24. DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT BAROCLINIC INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE NHC FORECAST. SURFACE SYNOPTIC AND WSR-88D RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE MOTION IS 035/9. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING FROM THE MIDWEST SHOULD KICK ALBERTO AND/OR THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...IN A DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THERE IS A THREAT OF FLOODING DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 30.7N 83.2W 35 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 14/0600Z 32.4N 82.0W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 14/1800Z 34.8N 78.7W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 15/0600Z 37.7N 72.6W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 15/1800Z 41.0N 66.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 16/1800Z 48.5N 51.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 17/1800Z 53.0N 34.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 18/1800Z 54.5N 15.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
