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| #91686 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 14.Jun.2006) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 500 AM EDT WED JUN 14 2006 DOPPLER VELOCITIES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOYS AND CMAN STATIONS OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS INDICATE THAT WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. HENCE...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION AND ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. HOWEVER...GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS IN ANTICIPATION OF ALBERTO'S RE-STRENGTHENING AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. ALBERTO HAS ACCELERATED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 040/18. A DEEP-LAYER LAYER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD HELP THE CYCLONE TO CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST. ALBERTO IS QUICKLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION FORECAST ONCE THE SYSTEM RE-EMERGES OVER WATER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE EARLY PERIODS. THE TRACK FORECAST BEYOND 48 HOURS IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND UKMET MODEL SOLUTIONS. FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 33.5N 81.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 35.7N 77.7W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND 24HR VT 15/0600Z 38.5N 72.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 15/1800Z 41.0N 65.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 16/0600Z 44.5N 57.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 17/0600Z 52.0N 41.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 18/0600Z 57.0N 22.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 19/0600Z 60.0N 13.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
