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| #9220 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 19.Sep.2004) TCMAT2 HURRICANE KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122004 0900Z SUN SEP 19 2004 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 42.2W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 42.2W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 41.7W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.9N 43.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.7N 45.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.7N 47.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.0N 48.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.0N 49.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 29.5N 47.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 37.5N 42.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 42.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
