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| #927150 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:53 PM 25.May.2018) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 700 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018 ...ALBERTO MOVING SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 86.0W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Horseshoe Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tulum to Cabo Catoche Mexico * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio * Indian Pass to Grand Isle * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the Yucatan and Cuba portions of the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the United States portion of that watch area within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 86.0 West. The storm is moving erratically toward the east near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow and erratic motion toward the north is expected tonight. From Saturday afternoon into Sunday, a general northward motion at a faster forward speed is expected, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, with little change in strength forecast on Monday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches) based on recent data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and surface observations. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall accmumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and southern and southwestern Florida. Heavy rain will likely begin to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern United States later this weekend and continue into early next week. Flooding potential will increase across this region early next week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the United States watch area beginning on Sunday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Horseshoe Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge- related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of the coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend. For more information, consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
