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| #927244 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:45 PM 26.May.2018) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 200 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018 ...CENTER OF ALBERTO REFORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTING WESTERN CUBA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 85.2W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Crystal River to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio * Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Boca Grande to Anclote River * Aucilla River to Grand Isle * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the United States portion of that watch area within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located by reconnaissance aircraft and satellite data near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 85.2 West. The storm is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A northward or north-northeastward motion is expected today, followed by a slower north-northwestward motion on Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto is forecast to move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Monday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast in the watch area late Monday or Monday night. Heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions will likely reach the northern Gulf Coast well before the arrival of the center of Alberto. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches the northern Gulf Coast by Monday night. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across western Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and southern and southwest Florida. Heavy rains will begin to affect the central Gulf Coast region into the southeastern United States on Sunday and continue into the middle of next week as Alberto moves northward after landfall. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible along the track of Alberto from eastern Louisiana, across much of Mississippi, Alabama, western Tennessee and the western Florida panhandle. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches possible from the southern Appalachians into the coastal southeast. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Cuba through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida west coast on Sunday, and along the northern Gulf Coast by Sunday night or early Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Crystal River to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge- related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur over the Florida Keys and parts of southwestern Florida late this afternoon through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of the coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast through the weekend. For more information, consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown |
