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| #927315 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:36 AM 27.May.2018) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 200 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018 ...ALBERTO MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.2N 84.5W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Crystal River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Bonita Beach to Anclote River * Aucilla River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the United States portion of that watch area within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 84.5 West. The storm is moving generally toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later this morning, and a motion toward the north-northwest is forecast this afternoon through Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto will cross the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico through Monday, and make landfall over the northern Gulf Coast in the warning area late Monday afternoon or Monday night. Heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions will likely reach the northern Gulf Coast well before the arrival of the center of Alberto. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches the northern Gulf Coast on Monday. Steady weakening is expected after Alberto makes landfall. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to the east of the center. The NOAA automated station at Pulaski Shoals, Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 33 mph (54 km/h) and a wind gust of 39 mph (63 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure measured by the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft a few hours ago was 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across western Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and southern Florida. Heavy rains will begin to affect the eastern Gulf Coast region into the southeastern United States later today and continue into the middle of next week as Alberto moves northward after landfall. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible along the track of Alberto from much of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into western Tennessee. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches are possible across eastern Mississippi and from the southern Appalachians into the coastal southeast United States. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Dry Tortugas, and these conditions are expected to spread northward in the warning area along the west coast of Florida later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area along the northern Gulf Coast by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the northern Gulf Coast by Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Crystal River to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge- related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible across the Florida Keys and south Florida overnight, and are possible across the entire state of Florida later today. SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will continue to spread northward along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
