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| #927518 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 AM 28.May.2018) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 1000 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018 ...CENTER OF ALBERTO NEARING THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...RAIN BANDS AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING ONSHORE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 85.8W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning west of the Alabama/Florida border has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Watch west of Mexico Beach has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Suwannee River to Mexico Beach A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Suwannee River to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 85.8 West. The storm is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A faster northward or north-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto will cross the northern Gulf Coast in the warning area this afternoon or this evening. After landfall, the system is forecast to move well inland into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Alberto reaches the northern Gulf Coast later today. Steady weakening is forecast after landfall, and Alberto will likely become a subtropical depression tonight or early Tuesday, and degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday afternoon. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. An elevated observing station located about 15 miles (25 km) south of Apalachicola, Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 47 mph (76 km/h). A sustained wind of 36 mph (57 km/h) with a gust to 45 mph (72 km/h) have been observed at Apalachicola, Florida within the past couple of hours. The estimated minimum central pressure from reconnaissance aircraft data is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Tuesday: Central Cuba...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm-totals of 20 to 25 inches. The Florida panhandle across eastern and central Alabama and western Georgia...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. The Florida Keys and Florida peninsula...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated 10 inches. Rest of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley into the lower mid Atlantic from Tennessee east through the Carolinas...2 to 6 inches. Rains in Cuba could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the southeast United States, including Florida. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread across the warning area today and continue into this evening. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Suwannee River to Mexico Beach...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge- related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible today from northern Florida into central and southern Georgia, southern South Carolina, and southeastern Alabama. SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will continue to affect the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown |
