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| #927596 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 28.May.2018) TCDAT1 Subtropical Depression Alberto Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 1000 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018 Alberto`s circulation continues to move farther inland, and is now centered over southeastern Alabama. Surface synoptic observations indicate that the system has weakened to a 30-kt subtropical depression. Alberto will continue to weaken as it moves over land during the next few days, and the system should degenerate into a remnant low in 24 hours or sooner. The low is forecast to dissipate in 96 hours but some of the guidance, such as the latest run of the GFS, suggests that this event could occur sooner. The depression is moving northward at a somewhat faster pace, or 350/10 kt. The track forecast philosophy has not changed significantly. The cyclone should accelerate north-northwestward to northward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge to the east and southeast over the next couple of days. After that, the system should turn toward the north-northeast due to the influence of the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is close to the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCN, and is similar to the previous NHC forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall will lead to a significant risk of flash flooding across the Florida Panhandle, much of Alabama, and western Georgia overnight, spreading northward into northern Georgia, the western Carolinas, and Tennessee on Tuesday. 2. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 31.4N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 29/1200Z 32.9N 86.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/0000Z 35.6N 87.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/1200Z 38.4N 87.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/0000Z 41.6N 86.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0000Z 48.0N 81.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
