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| #9305 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 PM 19.Sep.2004) TCMAT2 HURRICANE KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122004 0300Z MON SEP 20 2004 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 45.1W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..225NE 225SE 225SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 45.1W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 44.6W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.9N 46.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.2N 48.2W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.7N 49.5W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.8N 50.3W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 28.9N 49.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 35.5N 46.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 46.0N 42.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 45.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z FORECASTER JARVINEN |
