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| #931843 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 06.Jul.2018) TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 06 2018 The depression has not become any better organized since the previous advisory. Deep convection has decreased a little near the center, but some banding features are still evident on the south side of the circulation. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt, in general agreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. The system is currently over the warm Gulf Stream waters, and it is expected to remain over this current during the next several days. These favorable oceanic conditions combined with light to moderate wind shear and a fair amount of moisture near the system should allow for gradual intensification. The SHIPS model is the most aggressive aid and shows the cyclone becoming a hurricane in about 3 days with additional strengthening thereafter. On the other hand, the HMON model shows no strengthening through the period. The NHC intensity forecast continues to lean toward the high end of the guidance due to the conducive environmental conditions for strengthening. The depression is moving north-northwestward at 5 kt steered by the flow on the western periphery of a subtropical ridge. A slow north-northwest to north motion is expected during the next 24 hours while the steering pattern holds. However, by Saturday night, the steering currents are forecast to collapse and the cyclone will likely drift eastward or southeastward on Sunday and Monday. Thereafter, a shortwave trough is anticipated to approach the system and it should finally sweep the cyclone northeastward well east of the U.S. coast beginning on Tuesday. The latest HWRF model run brings the system inland over the southeastern U.S., but this model is an outlier, and the remainder of the guidance shows a track well offshore of the U.S. coast. The NHC track forecast is a tad to the east of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest consensus models. Most of the guidance suggests that the tropical-storm-force winds associated with the cyclone will occur primarily to the east of the cyclone`s center well away from the U.S. coast. Therefore, no watches or warnings are required for the U.S coast at this time, however, interests along the North Carolina coast should monitor the progress of this system. The technical issue with the NHC wind speed probability text product at land locations has been resolved. The wind speed probability values provided in the text product, the graphics on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov, and the publicly disseminated grid files will all correctly reflect the reduced probabilities over land. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 32.6N 74.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 33.2N 74.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 33.7N 74.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 33.7N 74.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 33.6N 73.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 33.6N 73.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 34.7N 71.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 38.0N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
