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| #931901 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 07.Jul.2018) TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018 Although the convection has increased this morning and it seems a little better organized, surface observations and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB indicate that the winds remain at 25 kt. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft will check the depression later this morning, so we will have more information about the intensity and structure of the depression later today. The cyclone will remain over warm waters and in a relatively low-shear environment for the next 2 to 3 days. Based on these conditions, the NHC forecast calls for gradual strengthening at a rate very close to the HCCA corrected consensus model. The cyclone will most likely begin to acquire extratropical characteristics by the end of the forecast period. The depression is embedded within very weak steering currents, and little motion is anticipated for the next 2 days. After that time, the cyclone will be steered toward the northeast with increasing forward speed within the southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching mid-level trough. Guidance clearly indicates the cyclone`s slow motion during the next 2 days, and unanimously forecast the cyclone to accelerate to the northeast thereafter. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope, and very closely follows the multi-model consensus. Guidance continues to suggest that the forecast tropical-storm-force winds associated with the cyclone will not reach the U.S. coast. On this basis, no watches or warnings are required at this time, however, interests along the North Carolina coast should monitor the progress of the depression. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 33.1N 74.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 33.4N 74.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 33.5N 74.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 33.5N 73.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 33.5N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 35.5N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 39.5N 64.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 47.0N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila |
