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| #931928 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:33 PM 07.Jul.2018) TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018 An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigated the depression a few hours ago and found that the circulation is still somewhat elongated with a minimum pressure of 1015 mb. The plane measured flight-level winds which support an initial intensity of 30 kt. These winds were confined to a convective band south of the center. The satellite presentation has not improved very much since the morning advisory. The cyclone will remain over warm waters and in a relatively low-shear environment for the next 2 to 3 days. Based on these conditions, the NHC forecast calls for gradual strengthening, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm within the next 12 hours or so. Additional intensification is anticipated when the cyclone moves toward the northeast over the open Atlantic as indicated by most of the models. The cyclone will most likely begin to acquire extratropical characteristics over cold waters by the end of the forecast period. The depression continues to be embedded within very weak steering currents, and little motion is anticipated for the next 2 days. After that time, the cyclone will be steered toward the northeast with increasing forward speed within the southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching mid-level trough. Guidance continues to clearly indicate the cyclone`s slow drift during the next 2 days, and unanimously forecast the cyclone to accelerate to the northeast thereafter. The NHC forecast continues to be in the middle of the guidance envelope, and very closely follows the multi-model consensus. Guidance continues to suggest that the cyclone will not approach the coast and that the forecast tropical-storm-force winds will not reach the U.S. coast. On this basis, no watches or warnings are required at this time, however, interests along the North Carolina coast should monitor the progress of the system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 32.9N 75.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 33.0N 75.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 33.0N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 32.9N 74.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 33.0N 73.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 34.5N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 40.0N 63.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 48.0N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila |
