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| #931966 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 07.Jul.2018) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 1100 PM AST Sat Jul 07 2018 Beryl is currently comprised of a small swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with isolated patches of deep convection near and east of the center. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased a little since the previous advisory, and based on them the initial intensity is set to a possibly generous 40 kt. The initial motion is 290/16. A strong low- to mid-level subtropical ridge north of Beryl should steer the system quickly west-northwestward during the next 36-48 h, and the track guidance is in excellent agreement on this. So, the new track forecast is an update of the previous forecast and lies near the center of the track guidance envelope. Westerly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase over Beryl during the next 48 h, and the cyclone will also be moving into a drier and more stable air mass. Based on this, the official intensity forecast calls for continued weakening, with Beryl forecast to weaken to a depression just after moving through the Lesser Antilles and then degenerate into a tropical wave just after 36 h. It should be noted that the official forecast is based on the premise that enough convection will return to the system to partly sustain it, and if this does not happen Beryl could weaken to a wave sooner than currently forecast. However, it should also be noted that even as an open wave the system will likely produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across the Leeward Islands and portions of the Greater Antilles during the next several days. Key Messages: 1. Beryl continues to weaken, but there is still a chance of some islands in the Lesser Antilles receiving direct impacts from wind and rainfall, where tropical storm warnings and watches remain in effect. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will also be possible across the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola through early next week. 2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl`s current intensity, and confidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than normal. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 13.1N 54.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 14.0N 56.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 15.3N 60.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 16.6N 64.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
