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| #932024 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 AM 08.Jul.2018) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane has been traversing the circulation of Chris, and found that the wind field is gradually becoming better defined, while the central pressure has dropped to 1006 mb. Maximum winds so far from the SFMR are 40 kt, and this will be the intensity assigned to Chris in this advisory. Another reconnaissance aircraft will check the cyclone this afternoon. Recent high resolution satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern is becoming better organized with the low-level center now embedded within the convection. Chris is expected to be over a pool of warm water for the next 2 days and embedded within an environment of low shear. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for Chris to become a hurricane in about 36 hours in agreement with the dynamical guidance and the HCCA model consensus. In about 4 days, Chris will be over 13 degree C water, and this should encourage extratropical transition. Since the steering currents surrounding Chris collapsed, the cyclone has barely moved since yesterday. These currents are foreast to remain light, so little motion is anticipated during the next 2 days. A mid-level trough forecast to swing eastward across the eastern United States will provide enough forcing to kick Chris northeastward with increasing forward speed over the Atlantic beyond 72 hours. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the track guidance envelope and follows closely the corrected consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 32.9N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 33.0N 74.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 32.5N 74.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 32.5N 75.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 32.5N 75.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 34.5N 72.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 13/1200Z 50.0N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila |
