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| #932082 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 PM 08.Jul.2018) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 500 PM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018 Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern continues to become better organized, and T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have increased to 3.0 on the Dvorak scale. This was confirmed by data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane which reported flight-level winds of 51 kt on the eastern semicircle. The initial intensity is set at 45 kt in this advisory. Chris is expected to be over a pool of warm water for the next 2 days and embedded within an environment of low shear. On this basis, the NHC forecast continues to call for Chris to become a hurricane in about 36 hours. This is in agreement with the dynamical guidance and the HCCA model consensus which strengthen Chris to a hurricane in a couple of days. In about 4 days, Chris will be over 13 degree C Canadian waters, and this should encourage extratropical transition. The steering currents have collapsed, and the cyclone has barely moved all day. These currents are foreast to remain light, so little motion is anticipated during the next 2 days. A mid-level trough forecast to swing eastward across the eastern United States will provide enough forcing to kick Chris northeastward with increasing forward speed over the Atlantic beyond 72 hours. The NHC forecast continues to be in the middle of the track guidance envelope and follows closely the corrected consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 32.7N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 32.5N 74.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 32.3N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 32.3N 74.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 33.0N 74.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 36.5N 69.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 43.5N 61.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 50.0N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila |
