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| #932117 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 08.Jul.2018) TCDAT2 Remnants Of Beryl Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 1100 PM AST Sun Jul 08 2018 The remains of the center of Beryl have crossed Dominica during the past few hours, accompanied by a disorganized area of convection. Radar and surface observations continue to show that the system is an open wave. There have been no observations of sustained tropical-storm-force winds from Dominica or Guadeloupe, so the initial intensity is decreased to a probably generous 35 kt. In the short term, increasing vertical wind shear should cause continued weakening of the system, with the remains of the center dissipating in the next 12 h. Between 72-120 h, there may be an opportunity for the remnants of Beryl to regenerate into a tropical cyclone when the system moves through the Bahamas and into the southwestern Atlantic. However, due to a lack of agreement by the dynamical models and the uncertainty about how the tropical wave will be disrupted by passage over Hispaniola, the chances of regeneration are currently in the low category. The initial motion estimate is 290/23 kt. The remnants of Beryl should maintain this rapid west-northwestward motion for the next 12 hours as they move through the northeastern Caribbean Sea to the south of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. This is the last advisory on this system by the National Hurricane Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. Key Messages: 1. As the tropical wave moves across the northeastern Caribbean Sea, strong gusty winds and locally heavy rains are possible across the Leeward Islands tonight and Monday, and these conditions expected to spread across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola by Monday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 15.8N 62.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL WAVE 12H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
