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| #932118 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 PM 08.Jul.2018) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 PM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018 Chris is on a strengthening trend. Deep convection has been expanding over the center and recent microwave images show an improved structure with tightly curved bands, especially on the north and east sides of the circulation. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating Chris and so far they have found a minimum pressure of 1005 mb and maximum flight-level winds of 57 kt, which would support a 50-kt intensity. The initial intensity is increased to 50 kt, but this is a little lower than the latest Dvorak estimates. Chris has not moved much today as it remains caught in very weak steering currents between two mid-level highs and a mid- to upper-level trough to its northeast. Since this pattern is not expected to change much during the next day or so, Chris is likely to continue to drift around during that time period. On Tuesday, however, a deep-layer trough is expected to approach the storm and that should finally cause Chris to pull away to the northeast. A very fast northeastward motion is forecast toward the end of the period when the cyclone becomes embedded in strong mid-latitude flow. The NHC track forecast is not too different than the previous one and lies near the various consensus aids. Additional strengthening is expected during the next 2 to 3 days as Chris remains over the warm Gulf Stream waters and in a moderate wind shear environment. The global models suggest that Chris could also benefit from baroclinic enhancements ahead of the approaching trough. The NHC intensity forecast follows the HCCA and ICON models and brings Chris to hurricane strength on Monday with additional strengthening into Tuesday. Steady weakening should begin shortly after 72 hours, and extratropical transition should be complete by 96 hours when Chris crosses the north wall of the Gulf Stream and is over very chilly 10 degree C waters. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one during the next few days to be in better agreement with the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 32.5N 74.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 32.4N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 32.3N 74.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 32.3N 74.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 33.5N 73.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 37.5N 68.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 43.6N 61.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/0000Z 49.5N 52.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
