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| #932468 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 12.Jul.2018) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 500 AM AST Thu Jul 12 2018 Deep convection has decreased considerable, and the cloud pattern is taking the typical shape of cyclones during extratropical transition with the rain shield expanding toward the northwest quadrant. Only a small area of thunderstorms remain near the center. Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB are decreasing, and assuming that the cyclone has weakened since the last ASCAT pass several hours ago, the initial intensity is set at 60 kt in this advisory. Chris will be moving over much colder waters, and with the increase in shear, the cyclone is forecast to acquire extratropical characteristics as it moves very near the extreme southern portion of Newfoundland later today. After that time, the post-tropical cyclone should continue toward the northeast and become absorbed by a larger cyclone in about 3 or 4 days. Chris is now moving toward the northeast or 045 degrees at 30 kt. The cyclone is already embedded within the fast mid-latitude westerlies, and this flow should continue to steer Chris on this general track until it becomes absorbed. Track models are in excellent agreement in both direction and speed, increasing the confidence in the NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 42.1N 60.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 45.4N 55.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 13/0600Z 49.0N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 13/1800Z 52.0N 40.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/0600Z 54.5N 30.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 15/0600Z 60.0N 20.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 16/0600Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila |
