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| #9348 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 PM 20.Sep.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2004 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 035/06. AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON FIX POSITIONS...ALONG WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE JEANNE HAS FINALLY MADE THE TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ...AND MAY EVEN BE MOVING MORE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS AND THE GFS-BASED BAM MODELS...THAT THE STEERING FLOW WILL COLLAPSE IN 24-48 HOURS AS A DEEP TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE MOVES EASTWARD AND PICKS UP HURRICANE KARL WHILE LEAVING JEANNE BEHIND. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF JEANNE AND BLOCK ANY SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD MOTION UNTIL ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN AND REPLACES THE RIDGE IN 96-120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND MAINTAINS THE SMALL ANTICYCLONIC LOOP IN THE FORECAST AFTER 72 HOURS...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. JEANNE HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP GOOD BANDING FEATURES AND THE INNER-CORE REGION HAS BECOME TIGHTER. A BANDING EYE FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND RECON REPORTS INDICATE A 20-30 NMI CLOSED EYE. A 20/2003Z RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 93 KT AT 5000 FT AND A 983 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE JUSTIFIES INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 75 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD AND INDUCES WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL DUE TO THE HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 27.4N 71.2W 75 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 27.6N 70.7W 80 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 27.7N 69.9W 85 KT 36HR VT 22/0600Z 27.6N 69.2W 80 KT 48HR VT 22/1800Z 27.2N 68.8W 75 KT 72HR VT 23/1800Z 26.5N 69.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 24/1800Z 27.0N 69.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 25/1800Z 28.0N 68.0W 55 KT |
