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| #9349 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 PM 20.Sep.2004) TCMAT2 HURRICANE KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122004 0300Z TUE SEP 21 2004 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 47.4W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. 34 KT.......175NE 175SE 125SW 175NW. 12 FT SEAS..275NE 275SE 275SW 275NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 47.4W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 47.1W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.1N 48.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 150SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.3N 49.8W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 150SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 25.4N 50.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 28.5N 49.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 36.0N 45.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 44.0N 44.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 49.0N 47.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 47.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z FORECASTER BERG/JARVINEN |
