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| #935509 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 08.Aug.2018) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018 500 PM AST Wed Aug 08 2018 Satellite images indicate that Debby's circulation is becoming elongated and the low-level center is on the northeastern edge of an area of moderate convection. A blend of the satellite intensity estimates, and data from an earlier ASCAT pass yields an intensity of 35 kt at this time. Debby is already moving over cooler waters, so additional weakening is anticipated, and the circulation should should open up into a trough on Thursday. In fact, this is the solution of the GFS and the ECMWF models. Satellite fixes indicate that Debby is moving toward the northeast or 040 degrees at 13 knots. The cyclone is well embedded within the southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough, and this pattern should continue to steer Debby northeastward with some increase in forward speed. The track models continue to be in pretty good agreement. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 42.0N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 43.5N 45.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 45.5N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
