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| #935601 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 09.Aug.2018) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 09 2018 Debby continues to produce a small area of deep convection just south of its exposed low-level center. Overnight and early this morning, the cyclone passed over a warm eddy within the Gulf Stream, and this may have provided enough energy to allow the cyclone to maintain its convection and intensity. A recent ASCAT overpass around 1230 UTC showed that the maximum winds of Debby are still near 40 kt, but the cyclone has nearly opened up into a trough of low pressure. Furthermore, the wind field has broadened, typically an indication that a system is losing its tropical characteristics. No significant changes have been made to the track or intensity forecasts. The tropical storm continues to move quickly northeastward, with an initial motion of 055/15 kt. The cyclone, or its remnants, should accelerate northeastward today ahead of a fast-moving shortwave trough until dissipation occurs. Debby is now crossing over the northern wall of the Gulf Stream, so weakening is expected to resume later today. The forecast conservatively shows Debby as a post-tropical cyclone at 12 hours, but it is very possible that Debby will dissipate later today as its forward speed increases. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 44.5N 43.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 46.2N 39.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
