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| #936190 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 15.Aug.2018) TCDAT5 Subtropical Depression Five Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 500 AM AST Wed Aug 15 2018 The low pressure system that the National Hurricane Center has been monitoring over the central Atlantic Ocean has developed sufficently organized deep convection and a well-defined center. Since the system has a large radius of maximum wind and is co-located with an upper-level low, it is being classified as a subtropical depression. The initial intensity is set to a possibly conservative 30 kt based on an earlier ASCAT pass. This value is slightly below the latest satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. It is interesting to note that so far this hurricane season, four of the five systems have been a subtropical cyclone at some point in their lifetimes. Slow strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours or so while the system remains over warm SSTs and in fairly low wind shear conditions. After that time, sharply colder waters, drier air, and a significant increase in wind shear should cause extratropical transition in about 48 hours, or sooner, and a gradual weakening. The models show the post-tropical system merging with a frontal zone in 3 to 4 days. The subtropical depression is moving slowly northward at about 4 kt. A north to north-northeastward motion is expected today as the system moves on the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. A mid- to upper-level trough currently over the northeastern U.S. is anticipated to approach the cyclone, and that feature should cause the system to accelerate northeastward on Thursday and Friday. The models are in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 37.6N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 38.5N 45.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 40.2N 44.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 42.5N 41.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 45.1N 37.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/0600Z 51.0N 24.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
