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| #936355 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 PM 16.Aug.2018) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 500 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018 Visible and infrared satellite imagery shows that convective banding has increased closer to the center of Ernesto today. The system has also lost much of its outer cloud bands and is no longer co-located with an upper-level low. On this basis, Ernesto is now being classified as a tropical storm. The initial intensity remains 40 kt, which is based on recent satellite estimates and the earlier ASCAT data. Although the cyclone is forecast to move over cooler waters and become post-tropical very soon, the global models deepen the system somewhat due to baroclinic processes. In addition, the expected increase in the cyclone`s forward speed is likely to result in an increase in the wind speed. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for slight strengthening over the next 12-24 hours, with little overall change in intensity thereafter. The system is still predicted to merge with a frontal zone as it approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom late Saturday or Saturday night. Ernesto continues to accelerate northeastward and is now moving 045/16 kt. The cyclone should accelerate further while moving northeastward to east-northeastward within the mid-latitude westerlies over the next day or two. The dynamical model guidance remains tightly clustered and little change was made to the previous NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 43.0N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 44.9N 37.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 17/1800Z 47.7N 31.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 18/0600Z 50.2N 23.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/1800Z 52.0N 15.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 19/1800Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE $$ Forecaster Brown |
