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| #937780 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 30.Aug.2018) TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 30 2018 The area of low pressure that moved off the coast of Africa has continued to become better organized, and is producing a large area of disturbed weather with gusty winds, but currently lacks a well-defined center. Environmental conditions are favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression or a tropical storm could form an any time today or Friday. Given the high chances that this system could bring tropical storm conditions to a portion of the southern Cabo Verde Islands, advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six. Most of the intensity guidance calls for strengthening and so does the NHC forecast. The system is embedded within the easterly trades and this flow pattern will steer the disturbance toward the west or west- northwest during the next few days. By the end of the forecast period, a turn toward the northwest should begin as the system reaches a weakness in the subtropical high. This is consistent with the output of the global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 12.9N 18.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 31/0000Z 13.2N 20.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24H 31/1200Z 13.5N 22.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 14.0N 24.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 15.0N 27.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 16.5N 33.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 18.5N 38.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 20.0N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila |
