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| #937807 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 30.Aug.2018) TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM AST Thu Aug 30 2018 The area of low pressure has continued to become better defined, and is still accompanied by a large area of disturbed weather with gusty winds. However, the system lacks a well-defined center, and Dvorak classifications do not support to classify the disturbance as a tropical depression at this time. An environment of high moisture and low shear favors genesis, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours. These favorable conditions are expected to prevail, so the NHC forecast gradually brings the winds up at a similar rate as the intensity consensus. Since the system lacks a well defined center, the initial motion is uncertain. The best estimate is toward the west or 280 degrees at 8 kt. The disturbance is moving rather slow because it is still embedded within the strong southwesterly monsoonal flow. Once it moves away from that region near Africa, it will be steered by the trade winds around the subtropical ridge, and the system will increase its westward or west-northwestward forward speed. By the end of the forecast period, a turn toward the northwest should begin as the cyclone reaches a weakness in the subtropical high. The NHC forecast is similar to the earlier one, and is in between the corrected consensus HCCA and the multi-model aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 12.9N 19.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 31/0600Z 13.1N 20.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24H 31/1800Z 14.0N 23.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 14.7N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 15.5N 29.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 17.0N 34.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 18.7N 39.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 21.0N 43.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila |
