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| #938082 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 PM 01.Sep.2018) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 01 2018 Florence continues to become better organized, with a circular central dense overcast and a complex of outer bands in all quadrants except the southwest. Satellite intensity estimates range from 35-55 kt, and thus the initial intensity is increased to 45 kt. Given the overall good appearance in satellite imagery, it is possible this is conservative. For the next 2 days or so, Florence should remain in a light shear environment over sea surface temperatures near 26C. Most of the guidance shows some slow strengthening, and the intensity forecast follows suit. After 48 h, the cyclone should reach warmer water and encounter southwesterly shear, and this combination is expected to result in little change in strength during this period. The intensity forecast is only slightly changed from the previous advisory and remains near the consensus aids. Considering the lack of shear and the good structure, though, it would not be surprising if Florence got a little stronger than forecast during the next couple of days. The initial motion is 290/12. The track guidance suggests a general west-northwestward motion should continue for the next 3-4 days as Florence is steered by the subtropical ridge to the north. Near the end of the forecast period, a more northwestward motion is expected. Despite the relatively straightforward steering pattern, there is a significant spread in the track guidance even by 72 h, with the Canadian model on the far right side of the guidance envelope, the ECMWF on the left side, and the other dynamical models loosely clustered in between. However, the overall guidance envelope has changed little since the last advisory, and the new track forecast lies near both the center of the envelope and the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 16.0N 30.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 16.5N 32.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 17.1N 35.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 17.6N 37.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 18.2N 40.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 19.5N 44.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 21.5N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 24.0N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven |
