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| #938169 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 02.Sep.2018) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 02 2018 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 77.3W ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM NNE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM ESE OF MARATHON FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the central Gulf Coast from the Alabama-Florida border westward to east of Morgan City, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Alabama-Florida border westward to east of Morgan City, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas Interests in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 77.3 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the disturbance will pass over the Florida Keys Monday afternoon, emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday evening, and reach the central Gulf Coast by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression Monday morning and a tropical storm by Monday evening. Conditions appear to be conducive for development, and this system is expected to become a tropical depression by Monday morning. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Tuesday night and Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts will be possible Monday afternoon and evening across portions of South Florida and the Florida Keys. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the central and northwestern Bahamas, the Florida Keys, and South Florida through early Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible over the southern Florida peninsula. This rainfall may cause flash flooding. The disturbance is expected to produce heavy rainfall along the central Gulf Coast of the United States by the middle of the week. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
