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| #938243 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 03.Sep.2018) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018 ...DISTURBANCE LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY... ...BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 80.2W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF MARATHON FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch from the Alabama-Florida border westward to east of Morgan City, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi-Alabama border westward to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alabama-Florida border westward to east of Morgan City, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas Interests in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 80.2 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and a westward-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the disturbance will pass over the Florida Keys or the southern portion of the Florida peninsula this morning, move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later today evening, and reach the central Gulf Coast by late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight. Conditions appear to be conducive for development, and this system is expected to become a tropical cyclone by tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Destin Florida to the Mississippi-Alabama border...1 to 2 ft. Mississippi-Alabama border to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border...1 to 2 ft. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the central and northwestern Bahamas, the Florida Keys, and South Florida through early Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible over the southern Florida peninsula. This rainfall may cause flooding. The disturbance is expected to produce heavy rainfall along the central Gulf Coast of the United States by the middle of the week. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area by late Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts will be possible today across portions of South Florida and the Florida Keys. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
