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| #938296 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 AM 03.Sep.2018) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018 ...GORDON LASHING SOUTH FLORIDA WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS... ...STORM SURGE WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.3N 81.3W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WNW OF KEY LARGO FLORIDA ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF MARCO ISLAND FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Shell Beach, Louisiana, to the Mississippi-Alabama border. The Storm Surge Watch has been extended eastward from the Mississippi-Alabama border to Navarre, Florida. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border. The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to the Okaloosa-Walton County Line. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Shell Beach to Mississippi-Alabama border A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West of Shell Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River * East of the Mississippi-Alabama border to Navarre A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Golden Beach to Bonita Beach * Craig Key to Ocean Reef, including Florida Bay * Okaloosa-Walton County Line westward to east of Morgan City, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning areas. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 81.3 West. Gordon is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and a west- northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next 72 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Gordon will emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early afternoon, reach the warning area along the central Gulf Coast by late Tuesday or Tuesday night, and move inland over the lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. strengthening is forecast during the next 36 to 48 hours, and Gordon could be near hurricane strength when it makes landfall along the central Gulf Coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Shell Beach to the Mississippi-Alabama border...3 to 5 ft. Navarre Florida to the Mississippi-Alabama border...2 to 4 ft. Shell Beach to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft. Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border...1 to 2 ft. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the central and northwestern Bahamas, the Florida Keys, and South Florida through early Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible over the southern Florida peninsula. Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over southern Alabama, southern Mississippi and Louisiana, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches through early Thursday. These rainfall amounts may cause flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue through the afternoon in the warning areas across South Florida and the Florida Keys. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the central Gulf Coast warning area by late Tuesday, with hurricane conditions possible late Tuesday or Tuesday night in the hurricane watch area. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight across the southern and west-central Florida Peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
