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| #9386 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 AM 21.Sep.2004) TCDAT2 HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004 DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT AROUND 06Z WERE 6.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND 6.0 FROM AFWA...CORRESPONDING TO INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KT AND 115 KT RESPECTIVELY. MORE RECENTLY...THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION OF THE COLD CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 120 KT. KARL MAY HAVE ALREADY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM STRENGTH. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE HURRICANE REACHES SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES...I.E. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. BY DAY 4 KARL SHOULD BE PASSING OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS AND LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH HELD UP A LITTLE HIGHER LATE IN THE PERIOD SINCE THE CYCLONE MAY DERIVE SOME ENERGY FROM BAROCLINIC SOURCES. KARL HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT...TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 340/10. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A TURN TO THE NORTH IN ROUGHLY 24 HOURS...TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY 48-72 HOURS...AND THEN BACK TO THE NORTH LATER IN THE PERIOD AS KARL BEGINS TO MOVE AROUND A LARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE AT HIGHER LATITUDES. THERE ARE HOWEVER SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED PREDICTED BY THE MODELS. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...ALBEIT FASTER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 20.1N 47.5W 120 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 21.7N 48.4W 120 KT 24HR VT 22/0600Z 23.9N 49.5W 120 KT 36HR VT 22/1800Z 26.5N 49.5W 120 KT 48HR VT 23/0600Z 29.2N 47.8W 115 KT 72HR VT 24/0600Z 36.0N 43.5W 95 KT 96HR VT 25/0600Z 44.0N 43.5W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 26/0600Z 48.0N 44.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
