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| #938641 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:06 AM 05.Sep.2018) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 05 2018 Gordon is moving farther inland and continues to weaken. Surface synoptic observations suggest that the cyclone is now of, at most, minimal tropical storm strength. These tropical-storm-force winds may be occurring over a small inland area near the center. Continued weakening is expected, and Gordon should become a tropical depression later this morning. Gordon continues moving northwestward, with an initial motion estimate of 325/12. The cyclone should continue on a northwestward heading with a decrease in forward speed, along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge, for the next couple of days. Later in the period, Gordon`s remnant is forecast to turn northward and northeastward with increasing forward speed as it approaches the mid-latitude westerlies north of 40N. the official forecast track is close to the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCA. All coastal watches and warnings associated with Gordon are being discontinued at this time. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will affect the western Florida Panhandle, southwest Alabama, southern and central Mississippi, northeastern Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, southern Iowa and Illinois, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through early Saturday. This rainfall will cause flash flooding across portions of these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 31.5N 89.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 32.4N 90.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 06/0600Z 33.4N 91.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/1800Z 34.1N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 07/0600Z 34.8N 93.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0600Z 36.7N 93.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/0600Z 39.0N 91.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0600Z 42.0N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch |
