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| #939654 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 AM 12.Sep.2018) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 500 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 ...ISAAC A LITTLE WEAKER AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 53.5W ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM E OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * Dominica * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua * Montserrat * St. Kitts and Nevis * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Isaac. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 53.5 West. Isaac is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through the weekend. On the forecast track, Isaac's center is forecast to move across the central Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Isaac later this morning and should provide a better assessment of the intensity of the tropical storm and the extent of its winds. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to 8 inches across Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe, with up to one inch anticipated across the remaining Windward and Leeward Islands. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe by tonight or early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Thursday. STORM SURGE: Some coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. SURF: Swells generated by Isaac will begin to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles this afternoon. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
