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| #939901 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 AM 13.Sep.2018) TCMAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 1500 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 43.7W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 120SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 43.7W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 43.4W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.1N 44.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.2N 44.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.9N 44.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 32.5N 42.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 35.5N 38.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 43.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
