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| #940161 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 AM 14.Sep.2018) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 Joyce has again changed little in organization since the last advisory, with several small bands of convection to the east and northeast of the partly exposed center. The initial intensity remains 35 kt in agreement with the latest satellite estimates from TAFB and the CIMSS satellite consensus. The initial motion is now 180/7. Joyce is currently being steered by the larger and stronger Helene to its east, and a southward to southeastward motion is expected for the next 12 h or so. As Helene passes to the east-northeast of Joyce, Joyce should turn eastward and northeastward with a faster forward speed due to the approach of a mid-latitude trough from the west. The global models have again trended toward a faster northeastward motion after 24 h, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted to be faster and a little farther to the east. There is no change to the intensity forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. Southwesterly upper-level winds are forecast to increase over the cyclone within the next day or two, which should prevent Joyce from strengthening. The NHC forecast calls for little change in wind speed over the next 36 h, then shows weakening as the shear increases further. The global models mostly dissipate Joyce by day 4, but the system could lose its deep convection and become post-tropical before that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 31.6N 44.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 31.3N 44.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 32.0N 42.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 33.2N 41.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 34.6N 38.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 36.0N 32.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
