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| #940284 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 14.Sep.2018) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 63 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018 ...CENTER OF FLORENCE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGES AND STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT... ...CATASTROPHIC FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.8N 79.1W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM WNW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SE OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning have been discontinued north of Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Myrtle Beach South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina * Pamlico Sound, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina * Pamlico Sound Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located over extreme eastern South Carolina near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 79.1 West. Florence is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through early Saturday. Florence is forecast to turn westward and then northward through the Carolinas and to the Ohio Valley by Monday. Radar data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast while Florence moves farther inland during the next couple of days, and it is likely to weaken to a tropical depression by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. A wind gust to 60 mph (96 km/h) was recently reported at Lumberton, North Carolina. A sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h) were recently reported at Florence, South Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground... The Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...4-7 ft Ocracoke Inlet NC to Cape Lookout NC...2-4 ft Cape Lookout NC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft Cape Fear NC to Myrtle Beach SC...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas... Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South Carolina...an additional 20 to 25 inches, with isolated storm totals of 30 to 40 inches. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding. Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue through Saturday in portions of the warning area along the coast and also over large portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina, with tropical storm force wind gusts spreading well inland. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in southeastern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina through Saturday night. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg |
