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| #940306 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 AM 15.Sep.2018) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 63A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 200 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018 ...FLORENCE JUST INLAND OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...CAUSING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OVER NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.7N 79.3W ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM W OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Myrtle Beach South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina * Pamlico Sound, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina * Pamlico Sound Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located over extreme eastern South Carolina near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 79.3 West. Florence is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through this morning. Florence is forecast to turn westward and then northward through the Carolinas and the Ohio Valley by Monday. Radar data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast while Florence moves farther inland during the next couple of days, and it is likely to weaken to a tropical depression by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) with a gust to 50 mph (80 km/h) was recently reported at Mercer Pier, North Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground... The Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...4-7 ft Ocracoke Inlet NC to Cape Lookout NC...2-4 ft Cape Lookout NC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft Cape Fear NC to Myrtle Beach SC...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas... Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South Carolina...an additional 20 to 25 inches, with isolated storm totals of 30 to 40 inches. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding. Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding. Newport, North Carolina reported a rainfall total of almost 24 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue through today in portions of the warning area along the coast and also over large portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina, with tropical storm force wind gusts spreading well inland. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in southeastern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
