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| #940337 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 15.Sep.2018) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 500 AM AST Sat Sep 15 2018 There has not much change with Joyce overnight. The tropical storm is producing a fair amount of deep convection to the north and west of the center, but there are some dry slots on the east side. A blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates supports holding the initial wind speed at 45 kt. Joyce is currently just east of an upper-level trough and the flow aloft is quite diffluent near the cyclone. This upper-level pattern could allow Joyce to strengthen slightly today. However, by tonight, southwesterly flow aloft is expected to increase over the cyclone. This increase in shear combined with decreasing mid-level humidities and cooling SSTs should lead to a steady weakening trend after 12 hours. The cyclone is forecast to dissipate in 3 to 4 days, but some of the models suggest that this could occur sooner. The tropical storm is moving eastward at 7 kt. Joyce is embedded in the same trough as Helene and it should follow that tropical cyclone east-northeastward to northeastward at increasing forward speeds during the next day or two. Beyond that time, if there is anything left of Joyce, the system will likely turn back to the east or east-southeast as it moves within the mid-latitude westerlies. The models are in fairly good agreement, and this forecast lies close to the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 31.9N 42.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 32.7N 40.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 33.9N 37.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 34.6N 34.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 34.7N 31.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 33.0N 26.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
