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| #940433 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:32 PM 15.Sep.2018) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 2100 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 39.6W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 39.6W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 40.4W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 34.1N 37.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.8N 33.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.8N 30.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 34.0N 28.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 31.5N 26.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 39.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
