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| #940440 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 15.Sep.2018) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 66 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018 ...CENTER OF FLORENCE CONTINUES ITS SLOW WESTWARD TREK ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.6N 79.9W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued north of Surf City, North Carolina. All Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence due to the heavy rainfall threat. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located by NOAA Doppler radars, satellites, and surface observations near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 79.9 West. Florence is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a slow westward motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected on Sunday. Florence is forecast to turn northward through the Ohio Valley by Monday. Radar data, satellite-derived winds, and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts, mainly to the northeast and east of the center in heavy rainbands over water. Gradual weakening is forecast while Florence moves farther inland during the next couple of days, and it is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) was recently reported at the Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coast of North and South Carolina are gradually receding. Some minor coastal flooding is still possible through Sunday. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas... Southern and central portions of North Carolina into far northeast South Carolina...an additional 15 to 20 inches, with storm totals between 30 and 40 inches along the North Carolina coastal areas south of Cape Hatteras. This rainfall will continue to produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding. Remainder of northern South Carolina into western North Carolina and southwestern Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. West-central Virginia into far eastern West Virginia, north of Roanoke and west of Charlottesville, 3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. These rainfall amounts will result in life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with an elevated risk for landslides. A preliminary report from a cooperative observer near Swansboro, North Carolina, indicates that more than 30 inches of rain has fallen so far. That rainfall total breaks the tropical cyclone rainfall record of 24.06 inches for North Carolina set during Hurricane Floyd in 1999. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue today in portions of the warning area along the coast and also over large portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina, with tropical-storm-force wind gusts spreading well inland. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in southeastern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina today through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
