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| #940497 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 15.Sep.2018) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018 The cloud pattern of Helene has continued to be disrupted by the high shear and cold waters. The center is well displaced to the west of the convection, and based on continuity plus the latest Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is set at 50 kt. Helene is heading toward even colder waters and extremely high shear. This should cause the cyclone to become extratropical in 24 hours or sooner as indicated by the SHIPS guidance. By 72 hours, the cyclone should have been absorbed by a much larger low. Helene is moving toward the northeast or 050 degrees at 22 kt. Since the cyclone is embedded in the westerlies, this general track should continue with an increase in forward speed until dissipation. This is consistent with track models which are in excellent agreement. On the forecast track, Helene should head toward Ireland and the United Kingdom Sunday night and Monday as a strong extratropical cyclone. Interests in those locations should consult products from their local meteorological service for information about potential impacts from Helene. Local forecasts and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at https://www.met.ie/. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 41.2N 30.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 43.2N 26.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 45.5N 21.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 17/1200Z 49.0N 13.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/0000Z 53.5N 6.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
