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| #940531 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 16.Sep.2018) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 500 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 What`s left of the Joyce`s associated deep convection is now displaced about 80 miles to the north-northeast of the elongated surface circulation. There still may be some 35 kt winds in a small area of deep convection where the coldest cloud tops (-65C) are observed, therefore, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. There is no change to the intensity forecast philosophy. The surrounding environment is forecast to remains quite unfavorable during the next 24 hours, although the warm 27C oceanic temperatures could slightly counteract the negative effects of the harsh vertical shear pattern. Afterward, decreasing sea surface temperatures, a more stable thermodynamic air mass, along with the stiff shear, is forecast to induce gradual weakening and, ultimately, dissipation in 4 days. The initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, or 075/15 kt. The cyclone is embedded within the same mid-tropospheric steering flow as Tropical Storm Helene, and Joyce should move east-northeastward to eastward today. Through day 3, Joyce should turn southeastward to south-southwestward around the eastern periphery of a subtropical ridge to its west as a vertically shallow system. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is based on the better-performing consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 34.0N 36.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 34.5N 33.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 34.6N 30.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 34.1N 27.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 32.9N 26.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 30.7N 28.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts |
