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| #940569 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 AM 16.Sep.2018) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 Joyce is barely a tropical cyclone at the moment. The cloud pattern consists of a low-level swirl with a small patch of deep convection located about 80 n mi northeast of the center and another patch of weakening convection well removed from the center in the northeast quadrant. Visible satellite images and a partial ASCAT pass indicate that the circulation of the cyclone has also become increasingly elongated from northeast to southwest. Based on the system`s appearance and the satellite intensity estimates, the initial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt, making Joyce a tropical depression. The depression is moving east-northeastward at 16 kt within the mid-latitude westerlies, and this motion should continue through tonight. After that time, the shallow cyclone is expected to slow down and turn southeastward and then southwestward as it is moves in the flow on the east side of a building low- to mid-level ridge. The track models are in fairly good agreement, and little overall change was made to the previous NHC forecast. Joyce is currently in a quite hostile environment of 30-40 kt of west-southwesterly shear. Even though SSTs are relatively warm, the ongoing strong shear and nearby dry air should continue to cause the cyclone to gradually weaken. Although the NHC forecast shows Joyce hanging on as a tropical depression for a couple of more days, it is very possible that the system could degenerate into a trough or a remnant low at any time during that period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 34.7N 34.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 34.9N 31.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 34.5N 28.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 33.6N 27.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 32.6N 26.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 30.4N 29.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
