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| #940621 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 16.Sep.2018) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 500 PM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 Joyce continues to hang on as a tropical depression. The cloud pattern consists of a swirl of low-level clouds with patches of deep convection that become sheared off in the northeast quadrant. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, in agreement with an ASCAT pass from several hours ago that showed maximum winds in the 25-30 kt range. Even though Joyce is over relatively warm water, the current hostile atmospheric environment of 30-40 kt of west-southwesterly shear and nearby dry air should cause Joyce to gradually weaken during the next few days. Although remnant low status is not predicted to occur for 2-3 days, it is very possible that Joyce could degenerate into a trough or a remnant low well before then. The depression has turned to the east, with the latest initial motion estimate being 090/15. The weak and shallow system is expected to move in the low- to mid-level flow during the next few days. This should cause the cyclone to slow down and turn southeastward on Monday, followed by a southward and then southwestward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday as the system moves around a building ridge over the northeastern Atlantic. The track models are in fairly good agreement, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 34.4N 32.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 34.2N 30.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 33.6N 28.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 32.4N 27.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 31.2N 27.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 29.4N 30.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
