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| #940783 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 PM 17.Sep.2018) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Mon Sep 17 2018 Tropical Depression Joyce has proven to be resilient. Visible satellite imagery over the eastern Atlantic today showed a fairly prolonged burst of deep convection near and just east of the center. In the grand scheme of things, the circulation of Joyce is still relatively dry and free of thunderstorms, but this batch of convection causes us to maintain a 30-knot intensity at advisory time. Joyce had turned decidedly to the southeast since 15Z, and this fits in with the model guidance - all of which showed a very strong track consensus that curves the system down away from the westerlies, with the track eventually turning toward the southwest, suppressed by a developing flat ridge around 35 degrees north. Over time, this track will put Joyce in an environment characterized by less shear, but also marginal sea surface temperatures and very dry mid-level air. This should cause deep convection to diminish, and gradually reduce Joyce`s winds and structure to a post-tropical low - noting that all the global models lose definition on this system just after 72 hours. The lastest official track is near the consensus of the tightly clustered guidance, and represents no significant change since the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 33.7N 27.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 32.9N 26.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 31.8N 26.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0600Z 30.8N 27.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1800Z 30.1N 28.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1800Z 28.7N 31.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Burke/Blake |
