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| #941440 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 22.Sep.2018) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018 500 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018 Since the last advisory was issued, deep convection decreased in association with the depression to the point that it was not classifiable with the Dvorak technique at 18Z. However, there are a couple of patches of thunderstorms that have developed recently, and if they persist they could help the system hold on to tropical cyclone status a bit longer. The low-level center remains exposed with UW-CIMSS now analyzing nearly 45 kt of westerly shear over the cyclone. Gradual spin down is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours, and the cyclone should become a remnant low by Sunday. Global model fields show the surface circulation dissipating by 36 hours and that is indicated in the official forecast. The low-level center has been moving erratically today, with a recent northward jog seen, but the long-term initial motion estimate is 305/03. The weakening cyclone should be steered west- northwestward by a weak low-level ridge through dissipation, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged northward toward the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 13.6N 53.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 13.9N 54.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/1800Z 14.4N 56.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan |
